Progressive Corporation is scored 100 for moat and 95 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 20.7% and a gross margin of 29.5% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.23x equity.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 30.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $598.20, a 10-CAP price of $274.99 and a payback time price of $434.09, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $434.09. Today's price of $210.96 sits inside that zone.
Progressive Corporation currently reads as a strong business at a price the model supports. That is rare enough to warrant asking what the market sees that these figures do not.
| Price | $210.96 |
| Market cap | $122.7B |
| P/E ratio | 10.6x |
| Return on invested capital | 20.7% |
| Gross margin | 29.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.23x |
| Free cash flow yield | 12.9% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 15.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 30.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Chubb Limited (CB) | 83 | $529.89 |
| Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) | 93 | $615.80 |
| Allstate Corporation (ALL) | 91 | $591.81 |
| Fairfax Financial Hldgs Ltd (FRFHF) | 75 | $536.21 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Progressive Corporation rather than accepting ours.