Fairfax Financial Hldgs Ltd is scored 75 for moat and 68 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 5.4% and a gross margin of 21.7% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.56x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 8.9% a year, below the 9.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 9.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $1,072.43, a 10-CAP price of $131.65 and a payback time price of $157.47, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $536.21. Today's price of $1,550.00 is 189% above it.
The operating figures describe a business performing at a high level; the price asks for that performance to continue and then some. A margin of safety score of 35 is the measure of how little room that leaves for being wrong.
| Price | $1,550.00 |
| Market cap | $32.0B |
| P/E ratio | 7.6x |
| Return on invested capital | 5.4% |
| Gross margin | 21.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.56x |
| Free cash flow yield | 8.0% |
| Growth rate used | 8.9% |
| Growth rate measured | 9.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 9.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) | 84 | $128.14 |
| Cincinnati Financial (CINF) | 94 | $286.80 |
| Loews Corporation (L) | 70 | $113.81 |
| Markel Group Inc (MKL) | 77 | $2,610.51 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Fairfax Financial Hldgs Ltd rather than accepting ours.