Allstate Corporation is scored 91 for moat and 79 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 20.8% and a gross margin of 33.2% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.24x equity. A wide moat alongside strong management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 9.8% a year, below the 10.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 11.2x. That produces an intrinsic value of $352.17, a 10-CAP price of $475.30 and a payback time price of $591.81, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $591.81. Today's price of $224.41 sits inside that zone.
Allstate Corporation currently reads as a strong business at a price the model supports. That is rare enough to warrant asking what the market sees that these figures do not.
| Price | $224.41 |
| Market cap | $57.8B |
| P/E ratio | 4.5x |
| Return on invested capital | 20.8% |
| Gross margin | 33.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.24x |
| Free cash flow yield | 18.2% |
| Growth rate used | 9.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 10.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 11.2x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) | 93 | $615.80 |
| Fairfax Financial Hldgs Ltd (FRFHF) | 75 | $536.21 |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) | 84 | $128.14 |
| Cincinnati Financial (CINF) | 94 | $286.80 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Allstate Corporation rather than accepting ours.