On the four Ms, Lockheed Martin earns 100 for management and 59 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 17.4% and a gross margin of 10.2% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. The balance sheet carries debt at 3.23x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A moderate moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 2.8% a year, below the 3.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $70.67, a 10-CAP price of $399.43 and a payback time price of $362.45, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $399.43. Today's price of $505.50 is 27% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Lockheed Martin scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $505.50 |
| Market cap | $116.7B |
| P/E ratio | 18.6x |
| Return on invested capital | 17.4% |
| Gross margin | 10.2% |
| Debt to equity | 3.23x |
| Free cash flow yield | 6.2% |
| Growth rate used | 2.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 3.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Howmet Aerospace (HWM) | 83 | $53.83 |
| General Dynamics (GD) | 81 | $270.42 |
| The Boeing Company (BA) | 49 | $14.35 |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | 68 | $286.21 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Lockheed Martin rather than accepting ours.