On the four Ms, Howmet Aerospace earns 85 for management and 83 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 18.2% and a gross margin of 30.7% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.57x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 9.4% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 18.9x. That produces an intrinsic value of $53.25, a 10-CAP price of $43.91 and a payback time price of $53.83, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $53.83. Today's price of $228.51 is 325% above it.
The operating figures describe a business performing at a high level; the price asks for that performance to continue and then some. A margin of safety score of 12 is the measure of how little room that leaves for being wrong.
| Price | $228.51 |
| Market cap | $91.4B |
| P/E ratio | 49.2x |
| Return on invested capital | 18.2% |
| Gross margin | 30.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.57x |
| Free cash flow yield | 1.7% |
| Growth rate used | 9.4% |
| Growth rate measured | 9.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 18.9x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| General Dynamics (GD) | 81 | $270.42 |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | 68 | $286.21 |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | 59 | $399.43 |
| TransDigm Group (TDG) | 70 | $469.07 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Howmet Aerospace rather than accepting ours.