Northrop Grumman scores 76 for management and 68 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 9.2% and a gross margin of 19.8% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 1.18x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 2.7% a year, below the 3.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $80.91, a 10-CAP price of $286.21 and a payback time price of $258.11, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $286.21. Today's price of $482.00 is 68% above it.
The operating figures describe a business performing at a high level; the price asks for that performance to continue and then some. A margin of safety score of 8 is the measure of how little room that leaves for being wrong.
| Price | $482.00 |
| Market cap | $68.5B |
| P/E ratio | 15.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 9.2% |
| Gross margin | 19.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.18x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.0% |
| Growth rate used | 2.7% |
| Growth rate measured | 3.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| TransDigm Group (TDG) | 70 | $469.07 |
| Honeywell Aerospace Inc (HONA) | 13 | $32.40 |
| General Dynamics (GD) | 81 | $270.42 |
| Howmet Aerospace (HWM) | 83 | $53.83 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Northrop Grumman rather than accepting ours.