J.M. Smucker Company (The) scores 29 for management and 32 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 9.4% and a gross margin of 33.5% — figures that describe capital earning less than it costs to employ. Debt sits at 1.28x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 2.5% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $5.41, a 10-CAP price of $157.32 and a payback time price of $140.82, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $157.32. Today's price of $115.95 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 32 for moat and 29 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $115.95 |
| Market cap | $12.4B |
| P/E ratio | 54.2x |
| Return on invested capital | 9.4% |
| Gross margin | 33.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.28x |
| Free cash flow yield | 11.1% |
| Growth rate used | 2.5% |
| Growth rate measured | 2.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| McCormick & Company (MKC) | 49 | $40.17 |
| Hormel Foods (HRL) | 10 | $15.86 |
| Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv/The (MICC) | 1 | $9.40 |
| Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR) | 65 | $85.27 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of J.M. Smucker Company (The) rather than accepting ours.