Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv/The scores 73 for management and 1 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 9.2% and a gross margin of 100.0% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. The balance sheet carries debt at 5.21x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. The narrow moat and strong management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 1.0% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $0.74, a 10-CAP price of $9.40 and a payback time price of $7.88, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $9.40. Today's price of $17.18 is 83% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 1 for moat and 73 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $17.18 |
| Market cap | $10.5B |
| P/E ratio | 50.9x |
| Return on invested capital | 9.2% |
| Gross margin | 100.0% |
| Debt to equity | 5.21x |
| Free cash flow yield | 0.1% |
| Growth rate used | 1.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 1.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Hormel Foods (HRL) | 10 | $15.86 |
| Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR) | 65 | $85.27 |
| McCormick & Company (MKC) | 49 | $40.17 |
| J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) | 32 | $157.32 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv/The rather than accepting ours.