On the four Ms, PulteGroup Inc. earns 97 for management and 75 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 14.3% and a gross margin of 26.4% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.19x equity. A solid moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 9.4% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 10.5x. That produces an intrinsic value of $61.97, a 10-CAP price of $79.78 and a payback time price of $97.76, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $97.76. Today's price of $116.35 sits 19% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. PulteGroup Inc. scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $116.35 |
| Market cap | $22.5B |
| P/E ratio | 11.9x |
| Return on invested capital | 14.3% |
| Gross margin | 26.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.19x |
| Free cash flow yield | 7.5% |
| Growth rate used | 9.4% |
| Growth rate measured | 9.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 10.5x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Lennar Corporation (LEN) | 28 | $52.60 |
| NVR, Inc. (NVR) | 49 | $3,927.46 |
| Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) | 79 | $141.96 |
| D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) | 79 | $151.74 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of PulteGroup Inc. rather than accepting ours.