Southwest Airlines is scored 34 for moat and 56 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 1.8% and a gross margin of 17.4% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. Debt sits at 0.75x equity. A narrow moat alongside mixed management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 25.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 30.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $48.90, a 10-CAP price of $5.51 and a payback time price of $8.70, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $24.45. Today's price of $41.84 is 71% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 34 for moat and 56 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $41.84 |
| Market cap | $20.5B |
| P/E ratio | 25.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 1.8% |
| Gross margin | 17.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.75x |
| Free cash flow yield | -3.7% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 25.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 30.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Woodward Inc (WWD) | 81 | $80.08 |
| Xpo Inc (XPO) | 34 | $64.33 |
| J.B. Hunt (JBHT) | 45 | $131.49 |
| Snap-on (SNA) | 60 | $228.47 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Southwest Airlines rather than accepting ours.