Copa Holdings Sa-Class A is scored 77 for moat and 71 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 13.2% and a gross margin of 35.6% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.92x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 35.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 30.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $456.60, a 10-CAP price of $121.42 and a payback time price of $191.67, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $228.30. Today's price of $132.52 sits inside that zone.
A business scoring this well, trading inside its value zone, is the combination the framework exists to find — which is also the reason to check why the market disagrees. A margin of safety score of 100 describes the cushion, not the certainty.
| Price | $132.52 |
| Market cap | $5.5B |
| P/E ratio | 8.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 13.2% |
| Gross margin | 35.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.92x |
| Free cash flow yield | 6.2% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 35.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 30.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Jbt Marel Corp (JBTM) | 57 | $104.28 |
| Argan Inc (AGX) | 81 | $611.35 |
| Pool Corp (POOL) | 38 | $187.88 |
| Hafnia Ltd (HAFN) | 36 | $18.13 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Copa Holdings Sa-Class A rather than accepting ours.