Life Time Group Holdings Inc is scored 67 for moat and 42 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.4% and a gross margin of 47.6% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. The balance sheet carries debt at 2.16x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. The solid moat and mixed management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 26.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 30.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $54.60, a 10-CAP price of $7.22 and a payback time price of $11.39, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $27.30. Today's price of $40.36 is 48% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 67 for moat and 42 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $40.36 |
| Market cap | $9.0B |
| P/E ratio | 22.2x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.4% |
| Gross margin | 47.6% |
| Debt to equity | 2.16x |
| Free cash flow yield | -0.4% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 26.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 30.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Aptiv (APTV) | 57 | $54.01 |
| Skechers U.S.A. (SKX) | 75 | $36.55 |
| Allison Transmission Holding (ALSN) | 67 | $106.60 |
| Autoliv Inc (ALV) | 79 | $134.26 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Life Time Group Holdings Inc rather than accepting ours.