Ingredion Incorporated is scored 55 for moat and 93 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 11.8% and a gross margin of 25.3% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.41x equity. The moderate moat and exceptional management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 3.8% a year, below the 4.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $26.36, a 10-CAP price of $109.33 and a payback time price of $103.89, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $109.33. Today's price of $94.91 sits inside that zone.
A business scoring this well, trading inside its value zone, is the combination the framework exists to find — which is also the reason to check why the market disagrees. A margin of safety score of 14 describes the cushion, not the certainty.
| Price | $94.91 |
| Market cap | $6.0B |
| P/E ratio | 10.4x |
| Return on invested capital | 11.8% |
| Gross margin | 25.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.41x |
| Free cash flow yield | 7.2% |
| Growth rate used | 3.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 4.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| The Campbell's Company (CPB) | 18 | $26.21 |
| Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR) | 65 | $85.27 |
| Magnum Ice Cream Co Nv/The (MICC) | 1 | $9.40 |
| Hormel Foods (HRL) | 10 | $15.86 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Ingredion Incorporated rather than accepting ours.