On the four Ms, Herc Holdings Inc earns 45 for management and 48 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 5.1% and a gross margin of 28.2% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. The balance sheet carries debt at 5.73x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 20.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 25.5x. That produces an intrinsic value of $37.46, a 10-CAP price of $95.19 and a payback time price of $150.27, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $150.27. Today's price of $131.86 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 48 for moat and 45 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $131.86 |
| Market cap | $4.4B |
| P/E ratio | 89.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 5.1% |
| Gross margin | 28.2% |
| Debt to equity | 5.73x |
| Free cash flow yield | -2.9% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 20.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 25.5x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| U-Haul Holding Co (UHAL) | 32 | $29.36 |
| U-Haul Holding Co-Non Voting (UHAL-B) | 32 | $29.36 |
| Aercap Holdings Nv (AER) | 68 | $132.64 |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc (SUNB) | 66 | $99.46 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Herc Holdings Inc rather than accepting ours.