On the four Ms, Aercap Holdings Nv earns 34 for management and 68 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 5.6% and a gross margin of 59.8% — figures that describe capital earning less than it costs to employ. The balance sheet carries debt at 2.38x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. The solid moat and weak management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 12.8% a year, below the 13.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 9.6x. That produces an intrinsic value of $159.77, a 10-CAP price of $93.05 and a payback time price of $132.64, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $132.64. Today's price of $143.93 sits 9% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 68 for moat and 34 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $143.93 |
| Market cap | $22.7B |
| P/E ratio | 7.1x |
| Return on invested capital | 5.6% |
| Gross margin | 59.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.38x |
| Free cash flow yield | -2.8% |
| Growth rate used | 12.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 13.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 9.6x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc (SUNB) | 66 | $99.46 |
| U-Haul Holding Co-Non Voting (UHAL-B) | 32 | $29.36 |
| U-Haul Holding Co (UHAL) | 32 | $29.36 |
| Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) | 48 | $150.27 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Aercap Holdings Nv rather than accepting ours.