Honeywell International scores 91 for management and 24 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 9.2% and a gross margin of 36.9% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. The balance sheet carries debt at 2.24x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A narrow moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 2.8% a year, below the 3.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $67.02, a 10-CAP price of $138.24 and a payback time price of $125.40, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $138.24. Today's price of $213.80 is 55% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 24 for moat and 91 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $213.80 |
| Market cap | $67.8B |
| P/E ratio | 8.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 9.2% |
| Gross margin | 36.9% |
| Debt to equity | 2.24x |
| Free cash flow yield | 8.2% |
| Growth rate used | 2.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 3.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| FedEx Corporation (FDX) | 65 | $259.70 |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | 68 | $286.21 |
| Norfolk Southern Railway (NSC) | 50 | $162.59 |
| Canadian Natl Railway Co (CNI) | 44 | $53.15 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Honeywell International rather than accepting ours.