Hartford (The) is scored 83 for moat and 88 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 28.2% and a gross margin of 46.1% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.23x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 6.8% a year, below the 7.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 13.6x. That produces an intrinsic value of $100.19, a 10-CAP price of $207.89 and a payback time price of $226.35, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $226.35. Today's price of $125.74 sits inside that zone.
A business scoring this well, trading inside its value zone, is the combination the framework exists to find — which is also the reason to check why the market disagrees. A margin of safety score of 40 describes the cushion, not the certainty.
| Price | $125.74 |
| Market cap | $34.5B |
| P/E ratio | 8.2x |
| Return on invested capital | 28.2% |
| Gross margin | 46.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.23x |
| Free cash flow yield | 14.8% |
| Growth rate used | 6.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 7.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 13.6x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Arch Capital Group (ACGL) | 87 | $274.65 |
| Fairfax Financial Hldgs Ltd (FRFHF) | 75 | $536.21 |
| M&T Bank (MTB) | 60 | $364.93 |
| Northern Trust (NTRS) | 64 | $97.31 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Hartford (The) rather than accepting ours.