On the four Ms, Chevron Corporation earns 75 for management and 48 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 3.6% and a gross margin of 30.4% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.25x equity. A moderate moat alongside strong management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 14.3% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 22.9x. That produces an intrinsic value of $225.20, a 10-CAP price of $164.57 and a payback time price of $251.85, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $251.85. Today's price of $207.10 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 48 for moat and 75 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $207.10 |
| Market cap | $412.5B |
| P/E ratio | 19.9x |
| Return on invested capital | 3.6% |
| Gross margin | 30.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25x |
| Free cash flow yield | 5.9% |
| Growth rate used | 14.3% |
| Growth rate measured | 14.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 22.9x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Totalenergies Se (TTE) | 35 | $112.56 |
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | 56 | $263.82 |
| ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) | 33 | $133.59 |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | 49 | $725.07 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Chevron Corporation rather than accepting ours.