Moatly / Stocks / XOM

ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) — what is it worth?

$163.18 · $676.3B market cap · Oil & Gas Integrated
Scored from reported financial statements. Data as of 2026-09-19.
Moat
33
Durability of advantage
Management
85
Returns and capital use
Margin of safety
35
Price against value
Buy price
$133.59
Consensus of three methods
Intrinsic value
$113.49
What the business is worth
Margin of safety price
$56.75
Intrinsic value less 50%
10-CAP price
$94.17
Ten times owner earnings
Payback time price
$133.59
Eight years of free cash flow
MoatlyAI Insights

The moat score of 33 points to limited pricing power or competitive protection, which sits against a management score of 85 built on a 6.3 percent return on invested capital, 21.7 percent gross margin, and debt to equity of just 0.2x. Together they describe a business run with conservative leverage and modest, not exceptional, capital returns, in an industry where the moat itself is not scored highly.

At $159.80, the shares trade well above every valuation line calculated here: $57.09 on a margin of safety basis, $94.17 on a 10-cap basis, and $133.59 as the payback and consensus buy price. The margin of safety score of 36 reflects that gap. These prices rest on a growth rate of 12.6 percent, already capped below the 13.0 percent the company has actually delivered historically, a deliberately conservative assumption rather than an optimistic one.

The tension is that even with growth held back from its own historical pace, and with a low-debt balance sheet, the current price of $159.80 still asks for more than the model's estimates support, at 20.6 times earnings and a 4.5 percent free cash flow yield.

Key figures

Price$163.18
Market cap$676.3B
P/E ratio21.0x
Return on invested capital6.3%
Gross margin21.7%
Debt to equity0.17x
Free cash flow yield4.6%
Growth rate used12.6%
Growth rate measured13.0%
Exit multiple assumed18.0x

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Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of ExxonMobil Corporation rather than accepting ours.

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Not investment advice. Estimates only, built on stated assumptions that could be wrong. Figures are drawn from reported financial statements and were current as of the date shown. Do your own research.