CBRE Group Inc. is scored 55 for moat and 66 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.8% and a gross margin of 15.0% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 1.13x equity. The moderate moat and strong management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 11.2% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 22.4x. That produces an intrinsic value of $70.06, a 10-CAP price of $35.86 and a payback time price of $47.68, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $47.68. Today's price of $130.59 is 174% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 55 for moat and 66 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $130.59 |
| Market cap | $37.8B |
| P/E ratio | 30.0x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.8% |
| Gross margin | 15.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.13x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.5% |
| Growth rate used | 11.2% |
| Growth rate measured | 11.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 22.4x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) | 81 | $333.15 |
| CoStar Group (CSGP) | 52 | $13.95 |
| Firstservice Corp (FSV) | 88 | $127.70 |
| Colliers Intl Gr-Subord Vot (CIGI) | 69 | $100.17 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of CBRE Group Inc. rather than accepting ours.