On the four Ms, Trex Company Inc earns 100 for management and 64 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 13.7% and a gross margin of 39.2% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.22x equity. A solid moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 5.9% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 11.8x. That produces an intrinsic value of $8.74, a 10-CAP price of $24.49 and a payback time price of $25.60, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $25.60. Today's price of $43.50 is 70% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Trex Company Inc scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $43.50 |
| Market cap | $4.5B |
| P/E ratio | 25.9x |
| Return on invested capital | 13.7% |
| Gross margin | 39.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.22x |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.3% |
| Growth rate used | 5.9% |
| Growth rate measured | 6.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 11.8x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Fortune Brands Innovations I (FBIN) | 15 | $35.92 |
| Builders FirstSource (BLDR) | 57 | $91.50 |
| Armstrong World Industries (AWI) | 88 | $90.70 |
| Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD) | 82 | $175.30 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Trex Company Inc rather than accepting ours.