On the four Ms, Teledyne Technologies earns 77 for management and 79 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 6.8% and a gross margin of 39.2% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.25x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 14.7% a year, below the 15.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 29.3x. That produces an intrinsic value of $589.22, a 10-CAP price of $251.78 and a payback time price of $391.32, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $391.32. Today's price of $612.70 is 57% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Teledyne Technologies scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $612.70 |
| Market cap | $28.4B |
| P/E ratio | 29.6x |
| Return on invested capital | 6.8% |
| Gross margin | 39.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.4% |
| Growth rate used | 14.7% |
| Growth rate measured | 15.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 29.3x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Jabil (JBL) | 81 | $169.01 |
| Fortive (FTV) | 3 | $31.98 |
| Fabrinet (FN) | 73 | $195.75 |
| Flex Ltd. (FLEX) | 80 | $34.49 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Teledyne Technologies rather than accepting ours.