On the four Ms, Siriuspoint Ltd earns 63 for management and 72 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 6.3% and a gross margin of 52.6% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.28x equity.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 29.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 29.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $116.43, a 10-CAP price of $20.43 and a payback time price of $32.26, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $58.22. Today's price of $24.41 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 72 for moat and 63 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $24.41 |
| Market cap | $2.8B |
| P/E ratio | 6.1x |
| Return on invested capital | 6.3% |
| Gross margin | 52.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.28x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.0% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 29.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 29.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Nmi Holdings Inc (NMIH) | 96 | $73.20 |
| Lazard Inc (LAZ) | 19 | $61.46 |
| Goosehead Insurance Inc -A (GSHD) | 75 | $36.47 |
| Bread Financial Holdings Inc (BFH) | 62 | $599.11 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Siriuspoint Ltd rather than accepting ours.