Standardaero Inc scores 23 for management and 71 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 7.7% and a gross margin of 14.8% — figures that describe capital earning less than it costs to employ. Debt sits at 0.92x equity. A solid moat alongside weak management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 11.7% a year, below the 12.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 23.5x. That produces an intrinsic value of $17.09, a 10-CAP price of $7.22 and a payback time price of $9.84, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $9.84. Today's price of $21.17 is 115% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 71 for moat and 23 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $21.17 |
| Market cap | $7.0B |
| P/E ratio | 21.8x |
| Return on invested capital | 7.7% |
| Gross margin | 14.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.92x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.2% |
| Growth rate used | 11.7% |
| Growth rate measured | 12.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 23.5x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Vse Corp (VSEC) | 50 | $20.80 |
| Aar Corp (AIR) | 79 | $72.30 |
| Huntington Ingalls (HII) | 69 | $86.49 |
| Bwx Technologies Inc (BWXT) | 89 | $48.29 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Standardaero Inc rather than accepting ours.