Royal Caribbean Group scores 47 for management and 71 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 14.9% and a gross margin of 46.8% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. The balance sheet carries debt at 2.26x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A solid moat alongside mixed management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 52.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 21.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $339.32, a 10-CAP price of $64.61 and a payback time price of $102.00, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $169.66. Today's price of $269.99 is 59% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 71 for moat and 47 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $269.99 |
| Market cap | $72.4B |
| P/E ratio | 16.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 14.9% |
| Gross margin | 46.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.26x |
| Free cash flow yield | 1.6% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 52.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 21.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) | 68 | $128.38 |
| Carnival Corporation (CCL) | 63 | $49.27 |
| Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) | 60 | $649.94 |
| Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) | 68 | $197.53 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Royal Caribbean Group rather than accepting ours.