Phillips 66 is scored 49 for moat and 72 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.7% and a gross margin of 4.9% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.79x equity. A moderate moat alongside strong management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 16.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 24.4x. That produces an intrinsic value of $428.17, a 10-CAP price of $177.67 and a payback time price of $280.47, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $280.47. Today's price of $264.23 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 49 for moat and 72 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $264.23 |
| Market cap | $105.9B |
| P/E ratio | 15.1x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.7% |
| Gross margin | 4.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.79x |
| Free cash flow yield | 5.2% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 16.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 24.4x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Enbridge Inc (ENB) | 48 | $20.27 |
| Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) | 66 | $61.90 |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | 34 | $521.31 |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | 49 | $725.07 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Phillips 66 rather than accepting ours.