Douglas Dynamics Inc scores 71 for management and 59 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 10.1% and a gross margin of 26.6% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.78x equity. The moderate moat and strong management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 6.4% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 12.9x. That produces an intrinsic value of $13.08, a 10-CAP price of $22.42 and a payback time price of $24.00, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $24.00. Today's price of $39.70 is 65% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 59 for moat and 71 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $39.70 |
| Market cap | $918.1M |
| P/E ratio | 18.0x |
| Return on invested capital | 10.1% |
| Gross margin | 26.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.78x |
| Free cash flow yield | 8.4% |
| Growth rate used | 6.4% |
| Growth rate measured | 6.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 12.9x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Tennant Co (TNC) | 33 | $1.74 |
| Ats Corp (ATS) | 65 | $46.15 |
| Badger Meter Inc (BMI) | 100 | $84.03 |
| Jbt Marel Corp (JBTM) | 57 | $104.28 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Douglas Dynamics Inc rather than accepting ours.