Old National Bancorp is scored 62 for moat and 29 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.1% and a gross margin of 63.6% — figures that describe capital earning less than it costs to employ. Debt sits at 0.88x equity. A solid moat alongside weak management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 33.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 12.8x. That produces an intrinsic value of $29.16, a 10-CAP price of $25.45 and a payback time price of $40.18, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $40.18. Today's price of $24.98 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 62 for moat and 29 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $24.98 |
| Market cap | $9.6B |
| P/E ratio | 11.0x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.1% |
| Gross margin | 63.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.88x |
| Free cash flow yield | 7.4% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 33.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 12.8x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) | 54 | $49.74 |
| Bank Ozk (OZK) | 68 | $114.17 |
| Flagstar Bank Na (FLG) | 9 | $3.57 |
| Wsfs Financial Corp (WSFS) | 70 | $70.77 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Old National Bancorp rather than accepting ours.