Old Dominion Freight Line scores 100 for management and 55 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 19.9% and a gross margin of 32.2% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.03x equity. A moderate moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 6.5% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 13.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $31.17, a 10-CAP price of $57.43 and a payback time price of $61.58, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $61.58. Today's price of $178.10 is 189% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Old Dominion Freight Line scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $178.10 |
| Market cap | $37.0B |
| P/E ratio | 34.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 19.9% |
| Gross margin | 32.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.03x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.9% |
| Growth rate used | 6.5% |
| Growth rate measured | 6.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 13.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| United Airlines Holdings (UAL) | 55 | $215.31 |
| Waste Connections Inc (WCN) | 78 | $107.96 |
| Paychex Inc. (PAYX) | 80 | $73.39 |
| Ferrovial SE (FER) | 69 | $56.45 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Old Dominion Freight Line rather than accepting ours.