On the four Ms, NXP Semiconductors earns 91 for management and 39 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 11.0% and a gross margin of 54.4% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 1.22x equity. A narrow moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 7.3% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 14.7x. That produces an intrinsic value of $86.26, a 10-CAP price of $118.40 and a payback time price of $131.97, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $131.97. Today's price of $239.19 is 81% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 39 for moat and 91 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $239.19 |
| Market cap | $60.3B |
| P/E ratio | 20.4x |
| Return on invested capital | 11.0% |
| Gross margin | 54.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.22x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.2% |
| Growth rate used | 7.3% |
| Growth rate measured | 7.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 14.7x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) | 97 | $30.45 |
| TE Connectivity (TEL) | 71 | $148.85 |
| Teradyne, Inc. (TER) | 39 | $55.78 |
| Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) | 90 | $244.80 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of NXP Semiconductors rather than accepting ours.