On the four Ms, Netflix Inc. earns 94 for management and 90 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 25.2% and a gross margin of 48.5% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.54x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 12.6% a year, below the 13.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 25.1x. That produces an intrinsic value of $64.57, a 10-CAP price of $26.38 and a payback time price of $37.29, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $37.29. Today's price of $67.85 is 82% above it.
The operating figures describe a business performing at a high level; the price asks for that performance to continue and then some. A margin of safety score of 48 is the measure of how little room that leaves for being wrong.
| Price | $67.85 |
| Market cap | $282.5B |
| P/E ratio | 21.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 25.2% |
| Gross margin | 48.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.54x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.4% |
| Growth rate used | 12.6% |
| Growth rate measured | 13.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 25.1x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| The Walt Disney Company (DIS) | 73 | $70.64 |
| Fox Corporation (FOXA) | 47 | $87.09 |
| Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX) | 49 | $38.98 |
| Warner Music Group Corp-Cl A (WMG) | 61 | $19.12 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Netflix Inc. rather than accepting ours.