Vail Resorts Inc scores 48 for management and 11 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 7.0% and a gross margin of 41.8% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. The balance sheet carries debt at 14.23x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A narrow moat alongside mixed management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 8.2% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 16.5x. That produces an intrinsic value of $37.10, a 10-CAP price of $106.58 and a payback time price of $123.82, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $123.82. Today's price of $138.99 sits 12% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 11 for moat and 48 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $138.99 |
| Market cap | $5.0B |
| P/E ratio | 33.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 7.0% |
| Gross margin | 41.8% |
| Debt to equity | 14.23x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.6% |
| Growth rate used | 8.2% |
| Growth rate measured | 8.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 16.5x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Floor & Decor Holdings Inc-A (FND) | 51 | $41.91 |
| Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) | 26 | $20.36 |
| Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) | 46 | $43.38 |
| Gentex Corp (GNTX) | 66 | $29.05 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Vail Resorts Inc rather than accepting ours.