On the four Ms, Match Group Inc. earns 74 for management and 61 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 18.5% and a gross margin of 72.8% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Shareholder equity is negative, so the debt-to-equity figure is not meaningful here — usually the mark of heavy buybacks rather than distress, but worth checking.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 7.8% a year, below the 8.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 15.7x. That produces an intrinsic value of $22.99, a 10-CAP price of $46.87 and a payback time price of $53.45, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $53.45. Today's price of $40.13 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 61 for moat and 74 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $40.13 |
| Market cap | $9.4B |
| P/E ratio | 14.4x |
| Return on invested capital | 18.5% |
| Gross margin | 72.8% |
| Debt to equity | -15.67x |
| Free cash flow yield | 13.1% |
| Growth rate used | 7.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 8.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 15.7x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Zillow Group Inc. (Z) | 41 | $15.89 |
| Pinterest Inc. (PINS) | 87 | $42.46 |
| Reddit Inc. (RDDT) | 81 | $79.77 |
| DoorDash (DASH) | 77 | $90.79 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Match Group Inc. rather than accepting ours.