On the four Ms, Msa Safety Inc earns 91 for management and 82 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 13.5% and a gross margin of 46.5% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.46x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 6.8% a year, below the 7.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 13.6x. That produces an intrinsic value of $52.39, a 10-CAP price of $94.85 and a payback time price of $103.26, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $103.26. Today's price of $179.03 is 73% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Msa Safety Inc scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $179.03 |
| Market cap | $6.9B |
| P/E ratio | 22.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 13.5% |
| Gross margin | 46.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.46x |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.7% |
| Growth rate used | 6.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 7.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 13.6x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Standardaero Inc (SARO) | 71 | $9.84 |
| Stantec Inc (STN) | 95 | $67.42 |
| A. O. Smith (AOS) | 62 | $49.09 |
| Pool Corp (POOL) | 38 | $187.88 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Msa Safety Inc rather than accepting ours.