Freeport-McMoRan scores 68 for management and 43 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 7.8% and a gross margin of 27.0% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.61x equity. A moderate moat alongside strong management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 13.2% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 26.3x. That produces an intrinsic value of $45.70, a 10-CAP price of $41.02 and a payback time price of $59.57, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $59.57. Today's price of $69.30 sits 16% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 43 for moat and 68 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $69.30 |
| Market cap | $99.6B |
| P/E ratio | 34.0x |
| Return on invested capital | 7.8% |
| Gross margin | 27.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.61x |
| Free cash flow yield | 1.5% |
| Growth rate used | 13.2% |
| Growth rate measured | 13.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 26.3x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Johnson Controls (JCI) | 21 | $34.40 |
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | 86 | $178.11 |
| Sherwin-Williams (SHW) | 71 | $139.37 |
| Ecolab Inc. (ECL) | 61 | $84.20 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Freeport-McMoRan rather than accepting ours.