Enphase Energy is scored 58 for moat and 74 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.8% and a gross margin of 46.6% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 1.14x equity. A moderate moat alongside strong management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 13.7% a year, below the 14.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 27.4x. That produces an intrinsic value of $24.54, a 10-CAP price of $12.67 and a payback time price of $18.87, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $18.87. Today's price of $32.82 is 74% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 58 for moat and 74 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $32.82 |
| Market cap | $4.3B |
| P/E ratio | 32.8x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.8% |
| Gross margin | 46.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.14x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.3% |
| Growth rate used | 13.7% |
| Growth rate measured | 14.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 27.4x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Tidewater Inc (TDW) | 73 | $87.13 |
| Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) | 36 | $31.23 |
| Weatherford International Pl (WFRD) | 60 | $84.39 |
| National Energy Services Reu (NESR) | 47 | $25.76 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Enphase Energy rather than accepting ours.