On the four Ms, Corpay earns 86 for management and 74 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 8.8% and a gross margin of 69.9% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. The balance sheet carries debt at 2.60x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A solid moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 13.6% a year, below the 14.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 23.7x. That produces an intrinsic value of $346.10, a 10-CAP price of $256.47 and a payback time price of $380.72, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $380.72. Today's price of $389.73 sits 2% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Corpay scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $389.73 |
| Market cap | $25.5B |
| P/E ratio | 23.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 8.8% |
| Gross margin | 69.9% |
| Debt to equity | 2.60x |
| Free cash flow yield | 6.2% |
| Growth rate used | 13.6% |
| Growth rate measured | 14.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 23.7x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| F5, Inc. (FFIV) | 85 | $177.54 |
| Verisign (VRSN) | 69 | $121.44 |
| MongoDB Inc. (MDB) | 75 | $128.92 |
| Toast Inc-Class A (TOST) | 87 | $15.88 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Corpay rather than accepting ours.