On the four Ms, Cnh Industrial Nv earns 33 for management and 41 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 5.3% and a gross margin of 31.5% — figures that describe capital earning less than it costs to employ. The balance sheet carries debt at 3.50x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A moderate moat alongside weak management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 4.1% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 8.3x. That produces an intrinsic value of $0.76, a 10-CAP price of $11.03 and a payback time price of $10.63, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $11.03. Today's price of $12.85 sits 17% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 41 for moat and 33 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $12.85 |
| Market cap | $15.9B |
| P/E ratio | 51.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 5.3% |
| Gross margin | 31.5% |
| Debt to equity | 3.50x |
| Free cash flow yield | 17.3% |
| Growth rate used | 4.1% |
| Growth rate measured | 4.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.3x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Oshkosh Corp (OSK) | 83 | $226.20 |
| Aebi Schmidt Holding Ag (AEBI) | 43 | $4.44 |
| Deere & Company (DE) | 56 | $182.13 |
| Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) | 75 | $283.44 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Cnh Industrial Nv rather than accepting ours.