Chipotle Mexican Grill is scored 76 for moat and 84 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 19.0% and a gross margin of 25.4% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. The balance sheet carries debt at 3.48x equity, which magnifies both the returns above and the risk beneath them. A solid moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 14.8% a year, below the 15.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 29.6x. That produces an intrinsic value of $31.64, a 10-CAP price of $13.92 and a payback time price of $21.76, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $21.76. Today's price of $32.32 is 49% above it.
A wonderful business at the wrong price is still the wrong price. Chipotle Mexican Grill scores well on the business and poorly on the entry point, which is the most common shape in a long bull market.
| Price | $32.32 |
| Market cap | $41.5B |
| P/E ratio | 29.7x |
| Return on invested capital | 19.0% |
| Gross margin | 25.4% |
| Debt to equity | 3.48x |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.9% |
| Growth rate used | 14.8% |
| Growth rate measured | 15.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 29.6x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) | 67 | $73.33 |
| Restaurant Brands Intl. (QSR) | 54 | $53.50 |
| Darden Restaurants (DRI) | 66 | $160.15 |
| Yum China Holdings Inc (YUMC) | 58 | $36.52 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Chipotle Mexican Grill rather than accepting ours.