Centerra Gold Inc is scored 65 for moat and 67 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 10.0% and a gross margin of 33.5% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.01x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 13.9% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 15.8x. That produces an intrinsic value of $44.49, a 10-CAP price of $9.87 and a payback time price of $14.84, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $22.24. Today's price of $21.54 sits inside that zone.
The price sits inside the value zone, but the business scores 65 for moat and 67 for management. Cheap and good are different tests, and only one of them is passed here.
| Price | $21.54 |
| Market cap | $4.2B |
| P/E ratio | 7.0x |
| Return on invested capital | 10.0% |
| Gross margin | 33.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.01x |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.2% |
| Growth rate used | 13.9% |
| Growth rate measured | 14.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 15.8x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| B2gold Corp (BTG) | 57 | $3.48 |
| Iamgold Corp (IAG) | 71 | $45.94 |
| Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU) | 76 | $147.96 |
| Barrick Mining Corp (B) | 89 | $43.13 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Centerra Gold Inc rather than accepting ours.