On the four Ms, CF Industries earns 95 for management and 71 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 14.3% and a gross margin of 38.5% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.82x equity. A solid moat alongside exceptional management is a combination worth understanding before the price matters at all.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 11.4% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 16.6x. That produces an intrinsic value of $163.28, a 10-CAP price of $144.91 and a payback time price of $194.49, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $194.49. Today's price of $114.56 sits inside that zone.
CF Industries currently reads as a strong business at a price the model supports. That is rare enough to warrant asking what the market sees that these figures do not.
| Price | $114.56 |
| Market cap | $17.6B |
| P/E ratio | 8.5x |
| Return on invested capital | 14.3% |
| Gross margin | 38.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.82x |
| Free cash flow yield | 14.4% |
| Growth rate used | 11.4% |
| Growth rate measured | 11.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 16.6x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Carpenter Technology (CRS) | 78 | $157.80 |
| International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) | 25 | $44.44 |
| Masco (MAS) | 43 | $75.60 |
| Carlisle Cos Inc (CSL) | 49 | $222.50 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of CF Industries rather than accepting ours.