Boise Cascade Co is scored 31 for moat and 91 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 4.8% and a gross margin of 14.0% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 0.25x equity. The narrow moat and exceptional management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 3.2% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $7.98, a 10-CAP price of $44.02 and a payback time price of $40.66, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $44.02. Today's price of $74.70 is 70% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 31 for moat and 91 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $74.70 |
| Market cap | $2.6B |
| P/E ratio | 25.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 4.8% |
| Gross margin | 14.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25x |
| Free cash flow yield | 0.5% |
| Growth rate used | 3.2% |
| Growth rate measured | 3.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Hawkins Inc (HWKN) | 93 | $73.94 |
| Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) | 65 | $22.24 |
| Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) | 31 | $9.24 |
| Trex Company Inc (TREX) | 64 | $25.60 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Boise Cascade Co rather than accepting ours.