American Express is scored 86 for moat and 80 for management. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 8.3% and a gross margin of 83.2% — figures that describe a business turning capital into profit efficiently. Debt sits at 1.73x equity.
The price anchors are built on deliberately conservative assumptions. Growth is modelled at 15.0% a year, below the 16.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 24.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $396.84, a 10-CAP price of $237.15 and a payback time price of $374.36, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $374.36. Today's price of $302.09 sits inside that zone.
American Express currently reads as a strong business at a price the model supports. That is rare enough to warrant asking what the market sees that these figures do not.
| Price | $302.09 |
| Market cap | $204.0B |
| P/E ratio | 18.3x |
| Return on invested capital | 8.3% |
| Gross margin | 83.2% |
| Debt to equity | 1.73x |
| Free cash flow yield | 6.2% |
| Growth rate used | 15.0% |
| Growth rate measured | 16.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 24.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Capital One (COF) | 78 | $786.09 |
| PayPal Holdings (PYPL) | 66 | $91.87 |
| Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) | 88 | $48.05 |
| Synchrony Financial (SYF) | 74 | $337.98 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of American Express rather than accepting ours.