On the four Ms, Arrow Electronics Inc earns 55 for management and 48 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 7.3% and a gross margin of 11.2% — figures that describe returns closer to the cost of the capital behind them. Debt sits at 0.47x equity.
The valuation runs on assumptions chosen to understate rather than flatter. Growth is modelled at 1.5% a year, the rate measured from the filings. The exit multiple assumed is 8.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $35.83, a 10-CAP price of $175.53 and a payback time price of $150.08, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $175.53. Today's price of $231.63 is 32% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 48 for moat and 55 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $231.63 |
| Market cap | $11.8B |
| P/E ratio | 14.8x |
| Return on invested capital | 7.3% |
| Gross margin | 11.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.47x |
| Free cash flow yield | -0.7% |
| Growth rate used | 1.5% |
| Growth rate measured | 1.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 8.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH) | 90 | $97.93 |
| Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) | 26 | $18.62 |
| HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) | 98 | $247.62 |
| GoDaddy (GDDY) | 78 | $152.37 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Arrow Electronics Inc rather than accepting ours.