On the four Ms, Archer-Daniels-Midland earns 68 for management and 50 for moat. The management score rests on a return on invested capital of 3.5% and a gross margin of 6.3% — figures that describe a business earning a respectable return on what it employs. Debt sits at 0.43x equity. The moderate moat and strong management are not the same judgement, and the gap between them is where the argument about this business sits.
Three independent anchors set the price worth paying. Growth is modelled at 4.5% a year, below the 5.0% actually measured over the last decade — the model caps growth rather than extrapolating a good run forwards. The exit multiple assumed is 9.0x. That produces an intrinsic value of $12.68, a 10-CAP price of $41.49 and a payback time price of $40.71, with the value zone set at the highest of the three, $41.49. Today's price of $79.52 is 92% above it.
The price is above the value zone and the business scores 50 for moat and 68 for management. Neither test argues for paying up here.
| Price | $79.52 |
| Market cap | $38.3B |
| P/E ratio | 21.8x |
| Return on invested capital | 3.5% |
| Gross margin | 6.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.43x |
| Free cash flow yield | 15.1% |
| Growth rate used | 4.5% |
| Growth rate measured | 5.0% |
| Exit multiple assumed | 9.0x |
| Company | Moat | Buy price |
| Sysco (SYY) | 51 | $57.54 |
| The Kroger Co. (KR) | 40 | $58.70 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) | 40 | $17.52 |
| Kenvue (KVUE) | 25 | $11.33 |
Every number above is built on assumptions that can be changed. In Moatly you can move the growth rate, the exit multiple and the margin of safety and watch every figure recalculate, so you are testing your own view of Archer-Daniels-Midland rather than accepting ours.